Regional multiseverity casualty estimation due to building damage following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake Scenario in Lima, Peru

Luis Ceferino, Anne Kiremidjian, Gregory Deierlein

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper presents the application of a rigorous probabilistic framework that estimates the number, severity, and distribution of casualties over a region. A brief summary of the model is included in this paper. The application is for casualties resulting from a Mw 8.8 earthquake scenario occurring on the subduction fault along the coastline of Lima, Peru. The case study demonstrates an application of the casualty model, including the procedures for acquiring the required information, the selection of model parameters, and a step-by-step explanation of the model-solving algorithms. The model provides an estimate of the joint probability distribution of multiseverity casualties, including spatial and across-severity correlations. This paper also shows how the model can be useful for (1) estimating 90th-percentile casualties, (2) identifying unsafe communities and structural typologies, and (3) providing evidence to support hospital collaboration policies across different districts to increase the patient treatment reliability. Additionally, the results demonstrate that empirical fatality prediction methodologies can underestimate fatality rates in countries with scarce and outdated fatality data.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1739-1761
Number of pages23
JournalEarthquake Spectra
Volume34
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2018

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Geophysics

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