Role of social-cognitive factors in the relationship between e-cigarette use and subsequent cigarette smoking among U.S. youth: A causal mediation analysis

Objective: E-cigarette use is associated with subsequent cigarette smoking among youth. The current study examined the mediating role of social-cognitive factors in this association. Methods: Data from four waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study (2013/4 – 2017/8) were analyzed. Among youth who had heard about e-cigarettes at Wave 1 but never used cigarettes before Wave 2, we conducted both causal and traditional mediation analyses to examine the mediated effect of social-cognitive factors (including relative harm perception of e-cigarettes versus cigarettes, harm perception of e-cigarette use, perceptions of addictiveness of e-cigarette use, and e-cigarette use among best friends) in the association between e-cigarette use and subsequent cigarette ever or current smoking, adjusting for covariates. We included sampling weights in all analyses; hence, results are generalizable to the U.S. youth (12 – 14 years) from the 2013–2014 cohort. Results: Results from causal mediation analyses indicated that the total effect of e-cigarette use, compared to no use, increased the risk of cigarette ever smoking (20.9 %) and current smoking (4.6 %). A portion of this effect (4.2 % − 15.1 % for ever smoking; less than 10.6 % for current smoking) can be attributed to changes in social-cognitive factors induced by e-cigarette use. However, these mediated effects were small in magnitude relative to their standard errors and not statistically significant. Results from the traditional mediation analyses largely aligned with these findings, except for a few small sized pathways. Conclusions: For the U.S. youth population, social-cognitive factors may only minimally or not at all mediate the association between e-cigarette use and subsequent cigarette smoking. Further investigation into the mediation role of social-cognitive factors is warranted. Tobacco control interventions that focus on cigarette smoking initiation among youth should target other mediating factors.