Tanzania’s economic and political performance: A district-level test of selectorate theory

This chapter focuses on the selectorate (those having a say in leader selection, e.g. all voters in a democracy) and the winning coalition (those voters who provide a majority). By providing private goods (individual material or financial benefits) and/or public goods (e.g. health care or higher income equality) the leader can ensure the support of the winning coalition. In this chapter, we will test a central hypothesis of: The larger the winning coalition the more public goods (rather than private goods) are provided. A district level analysis for the case of Tanzania—controlling for poverty levels, productivity, population, etc.—confirms that larger winning coalitions coalition favour public goods, whereas smaller winning coalitions coalition count on private goods provision. This finding might explain some of the obstacles for improved living conditions in Tanzania.