The dynamics of support: The winners–losers gap in attitudes toward EU membership in post-communist countries

Alexander Herzog, Joshua A. Tucker

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    We examine the question of whether economic winners were more likely to support European Union (EU) membership than economic losers in post-communist countries. We include in our analysis every cross-national survey of post-communist countries with both a measure of individual attitudes toward EU membership as well as an appropriate measure of individual self-assessment of economic progress. The resultant data set contains data from 67 different surveys over a 12-year period (1991–2003) in all 10 post-communist countries that have joined the EU to date. Using a variety of analytical techniques, ranging from simple cross-tables and multivariate analysis of the individual surveys to multilevel models of a fully pooled data set, we show that the pattern of economic winners being more likely to support EU membership for their country is remarkably consistent across both time and space. At the same time, the dynamic component of the analysis allows us to show that the size of this gap varies over time, with winners being even more likely to support EU membership than losers when EU membership is a more realistic possibility.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)235-267
    Number of pages33
    JournalEuropean Political Science Review
    Volume2
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 2010

    Keywords

    • European Union
    • European integration
    • post-communist countries
    • public opinion formation
    • referenda

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Political Science and International Relations

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