The evolution of AIDS economic research

This paper reviews the progress made by economists in their research on the AIDS epidemic. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, the direct economic impact of AIDS in the U.S. (i.e. personal medical care costs and foregone earnings due to morbidity and premature mortality) is not likely to be large on a national level through the early 1990s, although its impact will be large in certain regions of the country. Second, the large direct impact in certain regions implies that the epidemic may have serious economic repercussions that extend beyond the health sector of the economy. This raises a number of important research issues, many of which economists have not yet begun to address. Third, all of the key ingredients for conducting effective research on several of these important new issues - theory, data, and empirical methods - are currently available. This last conclusion is illustrated by an analysis of the labor market impact of the AIDS epidemic.