The Impact of Long-Term Care Policy on the Percentage of Older Adults With Disabilities Cared for by Family Members in China: A System Dynamics Simulation

Rong Peng; Bei Wu

doi:10.1177/0164027520923567

The Impact of Long-Term Care Policy on the Percentage of Older Adults With Disabilities Cared for by Family Members in China: A System Dynamics Simulation

Rong Peng, Bei Wu

Nursing

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This study examined the impact of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on the family caregiving burden in China. System dynamics (SD) methodology was used to construct an LTC delivery system model that simulates the demand of LTC, living options, and LTC service use for disabled older adults. The model was based on three policy variables including the proportion of payment from LTC insurance, the growth rate of beds in LTC institutions, and the time to adjusting the capacity of community-based care. Results showed that the percentage of older adults with disabilities cared for by family members was projected to increase from 92.6% in 2015 to 97.8% in 2035, assuming no policy changes; under the mixed policy scenario, this percentage would reduce significantly to 63.8% in 2035. These findings illustrate that changes in LTC policy and delivery system have a significant impact on family care.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	147-155
Number of pages	9
Journal	Research on Aging
Volume	43
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/0164027520923567
State	Published - Mar 2021

Keywords

elder care policy
family caregiving
long-term care
system dynamic model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Social Psychology
Health(social science)
Geriatrics and Gerontology

Access to Document

10.1177/0164027520923567

Cite this

@article{d7553944f5414b00bdd133ddaee23312,

title = "The Impact of Long-Term Care Policy on the Percentage of Older Adults With Disabilities Cared for by Family Members in China: A System Dynamics Simulation",

abstract = "This study examined the impact of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on the family caregiving burden in China. System dynamics (SD) methodology was used to construct an LTC delivery system model that simulates the demand of LTC, living options, and LTC service use for disabled older adults. The model was based on three policy variables including the proportion of payment from LTC insurance, the growth rate of beds in LTC institutions, and the time to adjusting the capacity of community-based care. Results showed that the percentage of older adults with disabilities cared for by family members was projected to increase from 92.6% in 2015 to 97.8% in 2035, assuming no policy changes; under the mixed policy scenario, this percentage would reduce significantly to 63.8% in 2035. These findings illustrate that changes in LTC policy and delivery system have a significant impact on family care.",

keywords = "elder care policy, family caregiving, long-term care, system dynamic model",

author = "Rong Peng and Bei Wu",

note = "Funding Information: The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 71503054). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2020.",

year = "2021",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1177/0164027520923567",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "43",

pages = "147--155",

journal = "Research on Aging",

issn = "0164-0275",

publisher = "SAGE Publications Inc.",

number = "3-4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Impact of Long-Term Care Policy on the Percentage of Older Adults With Disabilities Cared for by Family Members in China

T2 - A System Dynamics Simulation

AU - Peng, Rong

AU - Wu, Bei

N1 - Funding Information: The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 71503054). Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2020.

PY - 2021/3

Y1 - 2021/3

N2 - This study examined the impact of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on the family caregiving burden in China. System dynamics (SD) methodology was used to construct an LTC delivery system model that simulates the demand of LTC, living options, and LTC service use for disabled older adults. The model was based on three policy variables including the proportion of payment from LTC insurance, the growth rate of beds in LTC institutions, and the time to adjusting the capacity of community-based care. Results showed that the percentage of older adults with disabilities cared for by family members was projected to increase from 92.6% in 2015 to 97.8% in 2035, assuming no policy changes; under the mixed policy scenario, this percentage would reduce significantly to 63.8% in 2035. These findings illustrate that changes in LTC policy and delivery system have a significant impact on family care.

AB - This study examined the impact of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on the family caregiving burden in China. System dynamics (SD) methodology was used to construct an LTC delivery system model that simulates the demand of LTC, living options, and LTC service use for disabled older adults. The model was based on three policy variables including the proportion of payment from LTC insurance, the growth rate of beds in LTC institutions, and the time to adjusting the capacity of community-based care. Results showed that the percentage of older adults with disabilities cared for by family members was projected to increase from 92.6% in 2015 to 97.8% in 2035, assuming no policy changes; under the mixed policy scenario, this percentage would reduce significantly to 63.8% in 2035. These findings illustrate that changes in LTC policy and delivery system have a significant impact on family care.

KW - elder care policy

KW - family caregiving

KW - long-term care

KW - system dynamic model

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85084570754&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85084570754&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/0164027520923567

DO - 10.1177/0164027520923567

M3 - Article

C2 - 32378458

AN - SCOPUS:85084570754

SN - 0164-0275

VL - 43

SP - 147

EP - 155

JO - Research on Aging

JF - Research on Aging

IS - 3-4

ER -

The Impact of Long-Term Care Policy on the Percentage of Older Adults With Disabilities Cared for by Family Members in China: A System Dynamics Simulation

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this