The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S

Filippo Altissimo, Giovanni L. Violante

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non-linear VAR model. The non-linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross-correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence in the literature. The regime-dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long-run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)461-486
    Number of pages26
    JournalJournal of Applied Econometrics
    Volume16
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 2001

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
    • Economics and Econometrics

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