The struggle for mastery in Europe, 1985-1993

The demise of the Soviet threat and the growing importance of economic affairs have led to a loosening of international coalitions. We propose a spatial model to help understand the dynamics of international coalitions. States form coalitions to realize preferred outcomes of international issues. A coalition's ability to shift the status quo to such preferred outcomes depends on its members' capabilities. Shifts in the issue positions that states hold or shifts in their capabilities lead to changes in coalition membership. We show how the end of the Cold War and its aftermath can be explained by the spatial model. We conclude by identifying several feasible post-Cold War alternative futures.