USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING

John U. Farley, Charles S. Tapiero

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail‐order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)441-455
Number of pages15
JournalDecision Sciences
Volume12
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1981

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Keywords

  • Advertising
  • Learning Models
  • Linear Statistical Models
  • Stochastic Processes.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
  • Strategy and Management
  • Information Systems and Management
  • Management of Technology and Innovation

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