Was industrialization an escape from the commodity lottery? Evidence from Italy, 1861-1939

Giovanni Federico; Michelangelo Vasta

doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2010.01.001

Was industrialization an escape from the commodity lottery? Evidence from Italy, 1861-1939

Giovanni Federico, Michelangelo Vasta

Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The specialization in exporting primary products is frequently deemed harmful for long-run development, because it increases volatility of terms of trade and thus the number and frequency of macroeconomic shocks. One would expect modern economic growth to solve the problem by changing the composition of trade. This paper tests this hypothesis with a new series of Italian terms of trade from 1861 to 1939, a period which spans the first stage of the industrialization of the country. The results do not tally with the hypothesis. The change in composition improved marginally the terms of trade, but it did not help much in terms of volatility.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	228-243
Number of pages	16
Journal	Explorations in Economic History
Volume	47
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2010.01.001
State	Published - Apr 2010

Keywords

Economic growth
Italian trade
Terms of trade
Volatility

ASJC Scopus subject areas

History
Economics and Econometrics

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10.1016/j.eeh.2010.01.001

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Was industrialization an escape from the commodity lottery? Evidence from Italy, 1861-1939

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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